At the end of this week, President Dodon leaves for Moscow on a new working visit, saying that he will meet Vladimir Putin. Dodon has not revealed the full agenda of the visit. On his Facebook page, he wrote that he will discuss issues related to the conditions of Russian gas delivery to Moldova. 

Why should he meet Putin for this and not Russia’s Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev, as other countries around the world do? And why President Dodon and not Prime Minister Maia Sandu? 

Simply because the Russian gas, like any other imported or exported goods from Russia, has a political price in addition to its commercial one. And Putin is the one who dictates political prices in Russia. Nobody else. And for Putin, Dodon is the best candidate to negotiate prices.

We are on the eve of the local elections in the Republic of Moldova. As usual, Moscow will seek to build a positive image of Dodon and his socialists for the upcoming elections. And the Russian gas price (a sensitive social issue to speculate on) could be at stake. 

What could Dodon ask for (if he would even ask)? A lower price for Russian gas or maintaining current costs. What will Putin ask for? As always: everything. A Moldova subdued by Russia and transformed into a federation or confederation according to the old Kozak plan. In other words, a new Soviet Socialist Republic of Moldova (SSRM), as it used to be until 1991.

After the loss of Ukraine in 2014, Russia, dominated by its former imperial vanity, has sought and continues to seek revenge and rehabilitation as a powerful actor in the region. We see what is happening in Donbas, around Crimea, on the Black Sea. And Moldova could be a good playing card in the hands of Russia in its power adjustments with N.A.T.O. 

The fact that Dodon (who we know is Putin’s bailiff) was allowed to take control of all the power structures in Moldova creates additional risks and not just for the security and independence of Moldova. And I do not know if this is a compromise or a miscalculation made by those from ACUM Bloc or by those who advised them. 

On August 24, the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergey Shoygu visited Moldova for the first time since the country became independent. During his visit, he attended an event that glorifies the Soviet occupation of Basarabia. This could mean that Putin, in collusion with Dodon, is planning a reversal of the situation in Moldova, which could endanger the region’s peace.

Otherwise, how could we explain the fact that immediately after Shoygu’s departure, U.S. Presidential adviser for national security, John Bolton, visited Chișinău and – after meeting with President Dodon and Prime Minister Sandu, declared “We have no military objectives, we want Moldova to be independent.” Therefore, risks to Moldova’s independence exists, and if they are not from the West, then they are coming from the East.

• U.S. National Security Adviser Arrives in Chișinău

During his nearly three years in office, President Igor Dodon has made almost 40 official visits abroad, half of them in the Russian Federation. What for? 

• President Igor Dodon Made a One-Day Working Visit to Moscow

• In Moscow, President Dodon Thanks the Kremlin. Why?

Dodon was only in Brussels once ( he will make his second visit the coming days) and he has never been to Ukraine, Romania or any other European country. 

• President Dodon Makes Second Visit to Brussels

His Russian counterpart’s visiting agenda in Moldova looks quite different. Putin planned to visit Chișinău twice and arrived there only once. His first official visit took place in the summer of 2000 when Petru Lucinschi was President. It was a working visit, in which Putin brought with him more than half of the government and the presidential administration. They discussed the Transnistrian problem and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region. However, things remained unchanged. The agreements between the parties were limited to issues of commercial-economic cooperation. 

In 2003, politician Dmitry Kozak drafted the Kozak Plan, aiming to solve the Transnistrian problem by federalizing Moldova and maintaining the Russian military occupation on the Nistru river until 2020. This would have meant Moldova’s surrender to the Russian Federation. Then, Putin had to reach Chișinău to sign the Kozak Plan. However, the then-President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin, advised by Western partners, opposed his decision and Putin was forced to make his way back to Moscow. The visit failed.

Putin could never forgive Voronin for his gesture, but nor did he give up the idea of ​​Moldova’s recolonization.

After Igor Dodon became President in 2016 (backed by Putin and Democratic Party leader Vlad Plahotniuc, who each had their own interests: one financial, the other political) the Kozak Plan was brought up again, reformulated and put to work.  

Dmitry Kozak was formally appointed advisor for trade-economic relations with Moldova, but in fact, he was set to do what he did not succeed in 2003. Kozak is keeping Dodon on a short leash; he was summoned to Moscow several times and put to work on the Plan. Then things went even further. During a December 2018 summit in St. Petersburg, Putin asked to be invited on a visit to Moldova. “He asked me when we were going to invite him to Chișinău. I told him that by the end of 2019,” Dodon admitted.

But Putin is not the kind of man who invites himself for a mere tour through mother’s cellar or Cricova’s winery, like Philip Kirkorov. Putin wants to come to Moldova to accomplish what he did not achieve with Voronin in 2003 and to return home victorious as if from a war campaign. 

Is Dodon aware of what Putin wants? Yes, he is aware. In an interview for the German publication Der Spiegel before leaving for Moscow, Dodon argued that the Presidency had developed a concept by which the Transnistrian region of Moldova would receive a special status under the form of “strong autonomy” (keep in mind, this is the Kozak-2 Plan). 

“We could be a success story of how a frozen conflict in post-Soviet space could be resolved for the first time,” said Dodon. The fact that Dodon sold himself, well, that’s his own business. However, does he really think he can sell us too?

Meanwhile, Putin’s visit to Moldova has been postponed.

Petru Grozavu,