Last week in Kyiv, Prime Minister Maia Sandu said that early elections in Moldova are unavoidable, but what they don’t know is when they will take place. And why not? While we don’t know when Moscow will find an alternative to the coalition Socialist Party (PSRM) and ACUM Bloc government, it could be this autumn. After all, as President Igor Dodon said, “how long does the ‘honeymoon’ period for a government last? 90–100 days? Well, at the beginning of September… I will have lots of questions for many ministries.”

On Tuesday, Prime Minister Maia Sandu was on an official visit to Berlin at the invitation of the  German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Two days later, after a private talk with Teresa-Alexandra Esaulenko (the new director of Moldova’s Security and Intelligence Service), President Igor Dodon went to Moscow on a “short-term visit” – one of how many in his three years in office? 

In Moscow, President Dodon met with Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Kozak, as well as the representative of President Vladimir Putin for the Republic of Moldova. The same Kozak also hosted Mark Tcaciuk – former counselor to Moldova’s third President Vladimir Voronin – in Moscow for a long time, following an unofficial meeting in Chişinău on 24 June. After a period of silence Tcaciuk announced last week that he wants to return to politics. A few days later, his former party colleague, Iurie Muntean, also expressed his intended return to the political sphere. Both Mark Tcaciuk and Iurie Muntean, along with Grigore Petrenco and Alexandru Petcov, were members of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova’s radical wing. And in 2014, at the insistence of President Voronin, they were excluded from the Communist Party (PCRM). 

Here’s how what the media previously dubbed “political extremists” wants to get back into politics. What kind of policy do they want to carry out? And why now? And why Mark Tcaciuk? He, who at the time declared that the PCRM excluded him, that he would no longer participate in  politics and will deal with science. Did he renounce his statements statements and intentions? Did Kozak convince him to return? Are Russians looking for solutions for the future elections in Moldova? 

Interestingly, the same political situation in Moldova has brought Renato Usatîi back to Chișinău from Russia on 16 June. For the last four years, this great political speculator – depending on the case and the situation – has sided with Plahotniuc against Dodon, with Dodon against Plahotniuc, and joined Andrei Năstase and Maia Sandu in opposing the Plahotniuc-Dodon binomial and vice versa.

Nothing is clear in Moldova. What appears to be good is, in reality, awful or ridiculous. And many things cannot be seen with the naked eye. Instead of simplifying, things get complicated. They become more confusing, perhaps more confusing than ever or even suspicious. How much chaos and confusion has the  Kroll-2 Report sowed in the last two weeks alone? Kroll publishes one version, Usatîi another, the Parliamentary Commission publishes a third version of the report, while the Prosecutor’s Office and the National Bank also have their versions as well. Each with its own Report, from which, depending on interests, are deleted inconvenient names to any other party

Over a month after the Democratic Party’s “abdication” and the PSRM-ACUM coalition’s “peaceful” takeover of power in Chișinău, nothing is clear or settled. And things are unlikely to be settled any time soon. There are still key posts in the state without an established “owner” and yet President Igor Dodon is laying claim to them, either directly or indirectly. In the first stage of sharing positions within the government, President Dodon has gotten all the power so far. 

Dodon holds all of the key state security institutions and hence, at his Eastern patrons’ disposal. The Army, the Security and Intelligence Service, the State Security Services and as of Monday, the Prosecutor’s Office. If he gets his hand on the Constitutional Court, the National Anticorruption Center, the Supreme Court of Justice and the Superior Council of Magistracy, Dodon will not become a second Plahotniuc, but be even more dangerous than he was, taking into account his subordination to Moscow. Plahotniuc was a thief. At least this was the impression people had of him. Dodon, in addition to being a thief, also has the title of a traitor.

On Tuesday, one and a half months after taking office, Prime Minister Maia Sandu left for Berlin on her fourth foreign visit, after initially going to Bucharest, Brussels (the NATO Center) and Kyiv. She received special treatment while abroad and during all four visits, expressed the Republic of Moldova’s openness to democratic reforms and cooperation. 

For the West, Chișinău is becoming a serious partner. Earlier this week, the European Union unblocked funding to Moldova, which was frozen a year ago. And €14.54 million are set to arrive in Chişinău by the end of the week. 

“[We want] the Republic of Moldova to become a state with functional democratic institutions that puts citizens’ interests at the top of the list of priorities,” Sandu said during her meeting with Merkel. 

What is the purpose of Dodon’s visit to Moscow? The same as  he has declared every time he went to meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin or Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to his agenda, Dodon will “examine” in “several meetings” – including the latest one with Kozak – “the whole spectrum of bilateral relations, issues related to the expansion of trade and economic cooperation, social and humanitarian issues, problems of our migrants, gas prices, the Transnistrian settlement and much more.” 

Strange. Who’s lying? Dodon or those who gave the press release? How do you manage to address “the whole spectrum of bilateral relations” in a “short-term visit,” especially when Dodon went there without any other minister or the secretary of state. Why did Kozak invite you, Mr. Dodon? And what was the emergency?

On July 27, the PDM will have a congress. The Democrats are looking for a new identity after their loss of power in the Republic of Moldova. Will they succeed? Or will Tcaciuk, Muntean, or Usatîi take their place in politics? Moscow is looking for alternatives. 

Last week in Kyiv Prime Minister Sandu said that early elections are unavoidable in Moldova; that it’s just a matter of time. Why? It depends on when Moscow finds an alternative to the PSRM –ACUM coalition government, which may even be this Autumn. 

“How long does the ‘honeymoon’ period for a government last? 90–100 days? Well, at the beginning of September… I will have lots of questions for many ministries, I tell you honestly,” President Dodon told Accent-TV before leaving for Moscow. But the question remains, is ACUM ready for this potential divorce?

Petru Grozavu